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Arizona Diamondbacks 4–2 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 08:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Justin Wrobleski (ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.07) · home: Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA 2.71, WHIP 1.24)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
Elo value MLB$10.002.24$12.36+5%+12.36won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
MLB dog variance$10.002.24$12.36+5%+12.36won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19
Drought fade$10.002.19$11.87+2%+11.87won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win54%1.86
Arizona Diamondbacks win46%2.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Los Angeles Dodgers win1.701.67-1.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks win2.012.24+11.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Los Angeles Dodgers0010010002
Arizona Diamondbacks22000000—4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricArizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d20.0018.00
elo1519.121578.55
elo momentum (last 5)-4.67-10.02
matches since win1.000.00
rest days0.830.83
runs against avg (last 10)3.805.10
runs for avg (last 10)4.403.70