St. Louis Cardinals 6–8 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 11:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Freeland (ERA 6.81, WHIP 1.49) · home: Matthew Liberatore (ERA 4.97, WHIP 1.49)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62	Portfolio	$15.15	1.62	$9.41	+4%	-15.15	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.57	$5.71	+7%	-10.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.57	$5.71	+7%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
St. Louis Cardinals win	57%	10.45
Colorado Rockies win	43%	2.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.24	1.08	-51.7%
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.62	10.45	+544.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	1	0	3	0	1	2	0	0	1	8
St. Louis Cardinals	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	19.00	16.00
elo	1488.71	1384.20
elo momentum (last 5)	12.87	-4.12
matches since win	0.00	4.00
rest days	0.96	0.96
runs against avg (last 10)	3.70	5.90
runs for avg (last 10)	3.30	5.10