← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Gage Jump (ERA 4.59, WHIP 1.47) · home: Jake Bennett (ERA 2.9, WHIP 1.01)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.45 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.45 | $4.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.46 | $4.59 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.46 | $4.59 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 67% | 1.50 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 33% | 3.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.59 | 2.99 | +15.3% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.48 | 1.42 | -3.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Boston Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1567.60 | 1412.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.08 | -12.05 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 7.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 2.90 |