St. Louis Cardinals 3–2 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 12:15 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Feltner (ERA 5.75, WHIP 1.46) · home: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.44, WHIP 1.33)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.66	Portfolio	$22.97	1.66	$15.16	+6%	+15.16	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.55	$5.47	+5%	+5.47	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.55	$5.47	+5%	+5.47	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
St. Louis Cardinals win	60%	1.66
Colorado Rockies win	40%	5.56

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.34	2.35	+0.3%
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.55	1.65	+6.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
St. Louis Cardinals	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	—	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	20.00	17.00
elo	1487.46	1385.45
elo momentum (last 5)	8.42	1.77
matches since win	0.00	3.00
rest days	2.05	2.21
runs against avg (last 10)	4.20	6.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.30	5.40