← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.41, WHIP 1.08) · home: Hunter Brown (ERA 3.42, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +6% | +14.59 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +6% | +14.59 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +6% | +14.59 | won |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 55% | 1.86 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 45% | 2.59 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.90 | 2.46 | +29.7% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.79 | 1.57 | -12.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1514.03 | 1494.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.32 | 1.42 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |