← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 3, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Aaron Nola (ERA 5.61, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Portfolio | $12.12 | 1.70 | $8.48 | +3% | +8.48 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.00 | +9% | +7.00 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.00 | +9% | +7.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Washington Nationals win | 41% | 2.40 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.29 | 2.29 | 0.0% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.57 | 1.65 | +4.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1537.82 | 1466.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.80 | -12.82 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |