← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 07:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Seth Lugo (ERA 4.22, WHIP 1.37) · home: Kyle Freeland (ERA 7.34, WHIP 1.55)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 50% | 2.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.73 | 1.93 | +11.5% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 1.93 | 1.90 | -1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Colorado Rockies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1388.32 | 1446.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.08 | -7.04 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |