← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shane Drohan (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.2) · home: Ryan Johnson (ERA 7.34, WHIP 1.54)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Portfolio | $13.48 | 1.62 | $8.36 | +3% | +8.36 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +7% | +5.96 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.52 | $5.24 | +3% | +5.24 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 61% | 1.62 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 39% | 3.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.55 | 1.34 | -13.1% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.29 | 3.40 | +48.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1417.53 | 1574.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.43 | -4.37 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |