Boston Red Sox 6–1 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 05:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Kevin Gausman (ERA 4.51, WHIP 1.28) · home: Ranger Suarez (ERA 3.15, WHIP 1.16)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77	Portfolio	$11.77	1.77	$9.06	+5%	+9.06	won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.77	$7.70	+11%	+7.70	won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.70	$7.03	+5%	+7.03	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boston Red Sox win	56%	1.77
Toronto Blue Jays win	44%	2.22

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		2.19	2.16	-1.2%
Boston Red Sox win		1.60	1.73	+8.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Boston Red Sox	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Boston Red Sox	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	13.00	12.00
elo	1536.91	1493.44
elo momentum (last 5)	-3.22	-2.57
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.89	0.89
runs against avg (last 10)	3.50	5.00
runs for avg (last 10)	5.00	2.70