← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dean Kremer (ERA 4.15, WHIP 1.12) · home: Jake Bennett (ERA 2.35, WHIP 0.88)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.60 | +5% | +7.60 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.76 | $3.80 | +5% | +3.80 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.60 | +5% | +7.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 44% | 2.22 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Boston Red Sox | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| elo | 1541.73 | 1504.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.75 | 10.82 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.77 | 1.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.90 |