← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.77, WHIP 1.45) · home: Max Fried (ERA 3.21, WHIP 1.01)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.66 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.66 | $6.60 | +0% | +6.60 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.66 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.66 | $3.30 | +0% | +3.30 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.60 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 60% | 1.66 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 40% | 2.46 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1548.24 | 1511.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.87 | 8.18 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.70 |