Boston Red Sox 0–6 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 08:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.67, WHIP 1.14) · home: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.48, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91	Portfolio	$19.38	1.91	$17.64	+9%	-19.38	lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76	Drought fade	$10.00	1.76	$7.63	+11%	-10.00	lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.76	$7.63	+11%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boston Red Sox win	52%	1.91
Toronto Blue Jays win	48%	2.06

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.93	2.00	+3.5%
Boston Red Sox win		1.79	1.83	+2.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	6
Boston Red Sox	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Boston Red Sox	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	13.00	12.00
elo	1542.22	1488.12
elo momentum (last 5)	5.41	-12.47
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.87	0.87
runs against avg (last 10)	2.90	5.80
runs for avg (last 10)	5.40	2.80