← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.85, WHIP 1.25) · home: Gavin Williams (ERA 4, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Portfolio | $16.42 | 1.77 | $12.64 | +6% | -16.42 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 56% | 1.77 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 44% | 4.73 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.05 | 2.18 | +6.2% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.67 | 1.73 | +3.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1521.62 | 1466.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.79 | -7.91 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |