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Los Angeles Angels 0–1 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 08:07 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Hunter Dobbins (ERA 4.03, WHIP 1.39) · home: Reid Detmers (ERA 4.16, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90
Pitcher edge$10.001.90$8.96+8%+8.96won
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90
Drought fade$10.001.90$8.96+8%+8.96won
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90
Elo value MLB$10.001.90$8.96+8%+8.96won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Angels win51%1.90
St. Louis Cardinals win49%2.14

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
St. Louis Cardinals win1.102.02+82.6%
Los Angeles Angels win1.621.83+12.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
St. Louis Cardinals0000010001
Los Angeles Angels0000000000

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles AngelsSt. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d12.0014.00
elo1429.331495.41
elo momentum (last 5)2.87-8.63
matches since win0.004.00
rest days0.770.77
runs against avg (last 10)4.104.50
runs for avg (last 10)2.803.50