← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Anthony Kay (ERA 4.24, WHIP 1.37) · home: Tyler Alexander (ERA 2.79, WHIP 1.31)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.92 | $4.60 | +3% | -5.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 51% | 2.01 |
| Texas Rangers win | 49% | 4.98 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.83 | 1.19 | -34.8% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.84 | 4.98 | +170.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1496.93 | 1497.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.39 | 7.72 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 2.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.30 |