← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Eury Pérez (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.14) · home: Robert Gasser (ERA 5.24, WHIP 1.27)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Portfolio | $21.93 | 1.79 | $17.32 | +8% | +17.32 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.90 | +18% | +7.90 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +8% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 54% | 2.66 |
| Miami Marlins win | 46% | 2.19 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 1.09 | 2.10 | +92.3% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.77 | +3.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1583.80 | 1501.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.00 | -13.12 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |