← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 05:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.38 | $12.75 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +7% | +10.51 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 54% | 2.05 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 46% | 3.05 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.97 | 1.85 | -6.4% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.79 | 2.00 | +11.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| New York Mets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1462.75 | 1526.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.16 | 16.17 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |