← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 11:05 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 won leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.38 | $12.75 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Houston Astros win | 48% | 2.01 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.01 | 1.97 | -2.0% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.83 | 1.86 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1505.41 | 1490.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.28 | -5.07 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |