WC retro sim 2026-07-04

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-07-04

Who wins each match

Date	Stage	Match	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals	BTTS
7/4/2026	last 32	Colombia v Ghana	44.7%	36.0%	19.2%	28%	37%
7/4/2026	last 16	Canada v Morocco	48.6%	29.2%	22.2%	51%	55%
7/4/2026	last 16	Paraguay v France	22.9%	32.4%	44.6%	41%	48%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-07-05",
  "from": "2026-07-04",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "WC retro sim 2026-07-04",
  "as_of": "2026-07-04",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 3
  },
  "competition": "WC"
}