The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Portugal win
57%
56%
1.85
value: +4%
Draw
26%
26%
3.98
value: +4%
Croatia win
17%
18%
6.20
value: +9%
across 36 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Over
53%
56%
1.92
value: +8%
Under
47%
44%
2.19
fair
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Yes
55%
56%
1.81
fair
No
45%
44%
2.26
fair
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 10 or more corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
55%
1.71
Over
45%
2.08
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 8.5
55%
1.82
Under 8.5
45%
2.10
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Under 2.5
50%
1.88
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Croatia win
5.53
5.50
-0.5%
Draw
3.70
3.71
+0.3%
Portugal win
1.69
1.71
+1.5%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.