The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Santos FC win
66%
1.51
Draw
21%
4.90
Chapecoense AF win
13%
8.50
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
56%
1.76
Under
44%
2.22
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
50%
1.91
Yes
50%
1.95
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
53%
1.80
Over 10.5
47%
2.04
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
55%
1.74
Over 5.5
45%
2.10
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Chapecoense AF win
6.20
8.00
+29.0%
Draw
4.28
4.70
+9.8%
Santos FC win
1.49
1.40
-6.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.