← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 24, 06:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.45, WHIP 1.31) · home: Matthew Boyd (ERA 4.06, WHIP 1.22)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Chicago Cubs v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.80 | $18.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Chicago Cubs v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.80 | $18.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 65% | 1.53 |
| Miami Marlins win | 35% | 6.74 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.52 | 2.73 | +8.4% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.42 | 1.50 | +5.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1546.00 | 1491.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.56 | 0.59 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.70 |