← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Abbott (ERA 4.7, WHIP 1.47) · home: Chris Sale (ERA 2.18, WHIP 0.99)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Atlanta Braves v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.19 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 3.19 | $21.90 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Atlanta Braves v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.19 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.19 | $21.90 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 68% | 1.44 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 32% | 3.19 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.89 | 3.08 | +6.3% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.44 | 1.40 | -2.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1544.02 | 1459.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.56 | -1.62 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.50 |