← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 12:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +4% | +5.71 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +3% | +5.47 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 62% | 1.59 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 38% | 13.41 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.52 | 1.06 | -30.5% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.40 | 13.41 | +459.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Colorado Rockies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1377.46 | 1539.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.08 | 11.73 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.80 |