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Oakland Athletics 8–7 Seattle Mariners

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 08:05 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Bryce Miller (ERA 4.22, WHIP 1.14) · home: Jacob Lopez (ERA 4.78, WHIP 1.45)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29
Elo value MLB$10.002.29$12.88+7%+12.88won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29
MLB dog variance$10.002.29$12.88+7%+12.88won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seattle Mariners win57%1.76
Oakland Athletics win43%2.34

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Seattle Mariners win1.621.70+5.0%
Oakland Athletics win2.192.24+2.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Seattle Mariners0023100107
Oakland Athletics2000004028

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOakland AthleticsSeattle Mariners
congestion 21d18.0019.00
elo1415.971482.73
elo momentum (last 5)-1.194.07
matches since win1.000.00
rest days0.770.77
runs against avg (last 10)4.904.50
runs for avg (last 10)4.605.80