← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Emmet Sheehan (ERA 5.08, WHIP 1.26) · home: Eury Pérez (ERA 3.94, WHIP 1.24)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | -2% | +13.99 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 58% | 1.70 |
| Miami Marlins win | 42% | 13.41 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.62 | 1.67 | +2.8% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 2.14 | 2.29 | +6.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1482.70 | 1583.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.44 | 7.68 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.90 |