St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 11:15 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Luis Castillo (ERA 5.57, WHIP 1.46) · home: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.41, WHIP 1.33)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.90	$8.96	+3%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago White Sox win	51%	1.93
St. Louis Cardinals win	49%	1.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		1.76	1.93	+9.6%
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.86	1.90	+1.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.