St. Louis Cardinals 5–6 Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 11:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Luis Castillo (ERA 5.57, WHIP 1.46) · home: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.41, WHIP 1.33)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.91	$9.10	+4%	-10.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.90	$8.96	+3%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
St. Louis Cardinals win	50%	1.97
Chicago White Sox win	50%	2.19

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		1.76	2.19	+24.1%
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.86	1.73	-6.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago White Sox	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	6
St. Louis Cardinals	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago White Sox
congestion 21d	17.00	18.00
elo	1492.84	1489.77
elo momentum (last 5)	-0.03	-10.78
matches since win	0.00	4.00
rest days	0.96	0.96
runs against avg (last 10)	5.80	3.90
runs for avg (last 10)	6.50	3.30