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Boston Red Sox 2–3 Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Seth Lugo (ERA 5.04, WHIP 1.44) · home: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.69, WHIP 1.16)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
Elo value MLB$10.001.57$5.71+5%-10.00lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50
Pitcher edge$10.001.50$5.02+0%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Boston Red Sox win63%1.57
Kansas City Royals win37%2.75

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Kansas City Royals win2.522.66+5.4%
Boston Red Sox win1.501.500.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Kansas City Royals1020000003
Boston Red Sox0000200002