← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Seth Lugo (ERA 5.04, WHIP 1.44) · home: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.69, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.50 | $5.02 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 63% | 1.57 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 37% | 2.75 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.52 | 2.66 | +5.4% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1548.16 | 1470.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.65 | 1.29 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.02 | 1.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |