← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 10, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jared Jones (ERA 4.46, WHIP 1.23) · home: Hagen Smith (ERA 0.56, WHIP 0.94)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.96 | $9.60 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 50% | 5.56 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.86 | 1.19 | -36.0% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.79 | 5.56 | +209.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1496.44 | 1501.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.96 | 5.62 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |