← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 10, 02:10 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 70% | 1.40 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 30% | 3.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 3.18 | 3.40 | +7.0% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.38 | 1.34 | -2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 14 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1579.37 | 1469.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.17 | 2.23 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |