Los Angeles Dodgers 6–3 Cincinnati Reds

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 01:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Chase Burns (ERA 2.79, WHIP 1.16)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68	Portfolio	$16.75	1.68	$11.39	+7%	+11.39	won
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.57	$5.71	+9%	+5.71	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	59%	1.76
Cincinnati Reds win	41%	2.52

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cincinnati Reds win		2.29	2.09	-8.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.55	1.76	+13.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Cincinnati Reds	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Dodgers	Cincinnati Reds
congestion 21d	17.00	18.00
elo	1575.98	1472.49
elo momentum (last 5)	2.21	11.94
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	0.96	1.38
runs against avg (last 10)	4.10	7.10
runs for avg (last 10)	4.40	6.70