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Colorado Rockies 8–10 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 07:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.13, WHIP 1.31) · home: Tanner Gordon (ERA 5.18, WHIP 1.4)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
Pitcher edge$10.001.79$7.94+8%+7.94won
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
Elo value MLB$10.001.79$7.94+8%+7.94won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Louis Cardinals win53%2.24
Colorado Rockies win47%2.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
St. Louis Cardinals win1.651.76+7.0%
Colorado Rockies win1.972.09+6.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
St. Louis Cardinals01006003010
Colorado Rockies2030000128

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricColorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d19.0019.00
elo1392.401492.87
elo momentum (last 5)7.385.33
matches since win0.001.00
rest days0.790.79
runs against avg (last 10)4.205.80
runs for avg (last 10)4.806.10