← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Clay Holmes (ERA 2.09, WHIP 1.07) · home: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.33)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +4% | +12.70 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +4% | +12.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Miami Marlins win | 45% | 2.27 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.67 | 1.68 | +0.2% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.93 | 2.24 | +15.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1488.23 | 1555.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.91 | -0.35 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 7.00 |