← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Payton Tolle (ERA 3.23, WHIP 1.1) · home: Kyle Bradish (ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 55% | 1.86 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 45% | 13.41 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.73 | 1.74 | +0.2% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.86 | 2.15 | +15.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1495.98 | 1553.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.97 | -2.02 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |