← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.85, WHIP 1.26) · home: Anthony Kay (ERA 4.28, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Portfolio | $6.75 | 1.83 | $5.58 | +3% | -6.75 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 53% | 1.92 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 47% | 2.06 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.97 | 2.04 | +3.3% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.67 | 1.83 | +9.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Chicago White Sox | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1504.20 | 1462.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.37 | 8.17 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.90 |