← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Javier Assad (ERA 3.46, WHIP 1.1) · home: Ryan Gusto (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.33)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Miami Marlins win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.70 | 1.73 | +1.6% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 2.01 | 2.15 | +7.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1490.06 | 1553.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.58 | 4.04 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.80 |