← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zebby Matthews (ERA 4.58, WHIP 1.26) · home: Erick Fedde (ERA 4.16, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Portfolio | $10.49 | 1.86 | $9.02 | +5% | +9.02 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +6% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 53% | 1.86 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 47% | 2.09 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.93 | 2.04 | +5.6% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.73 | 1.83 | +5.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1501.40 | 1465.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.14 | 9.06 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 2.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.90 |