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Seattle Mariners 4–7 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 01:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Jack Perkins (ERA 6.42, WHIP 1.49) · home: Kade Anderson (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.3)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.53
Pitcher edge$10.001.53$5.30+1%-10.00lost
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.53
Drought fade$10.001.53$5.30+1%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seattle Mariners win60%5.25
Oakland Athletics win40%6.74

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Oakland Athletics win2.621.19-54.6%
Seattle Mariners win1.484.89+230.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Oakland Athletics1100210117
Seattle Mariners3000010004

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSeattle MarinersOakland Athletics
congestion 21d18.0019.00
elo1488.481407.33
elo momentum (last 5)2.98-5.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days1.231.30
runs against avg (last 10)6.505.60
runs for avg (last 10)4.405.00