← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 06:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Portfolio | $12.76 | 2.05 | $13.40 | +6% | -12.76 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 51% | 1.93 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 49% | 5.90 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.83 | 1.85 | +1.3% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.81 | 2.01 | +10.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1489.73 | 1491.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.69 | 3.24 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.60 |