← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 11:20 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Portfolio | $18.51 | 1.73 | $13.56 | +7% | -18.51 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 54% | 15.64 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 46% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.09 | 1.05 | -49.9% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.71 | 15.64 | +817.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1553.52 | 1460.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.82 | -3.93 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.40 |