Los Angeles Angels 2–4 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 02:07 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.89	$18.95	+9%	-10.00	lost
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.89	$18.95	+9%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	63%	2.20
Los Angeles Angels win	37%	3.00

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.39	1.67	+20.3%
Los Angeles Angels win		2.73	2.18	-20.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Angels	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	18.00	17.00
elo	1420.87	1552.64
elo momentum (last 5)	-11.58	-0.22
matches since win	5.00	0.00
rest days	1.02	1.02
runs against avg (last 10)	3.50	3.90
runs for avg (last 10)	4.40	5.50