Atlanta Braves 2–1 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 08:10 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.49	Portfolio	$22.63	1.49	$11.09	+5%	+11.09	won
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.48	$4.80	+10%	+4.80	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Atlanta Braves win	65%	1.50
Colorado Rockies win	35%	2.93

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.70	2.81	+4.3%
Atlanta Braves win		1.42	1.46	+2.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	—	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Atlanta Braves	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1546.89	1386.97
elo momentum (last 5)	11.25	3.25
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	0.87	0.87
runs against avg (last 10)	3.00	6.10
runs for avg (last 10)	3.00	4.00