← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 01:38 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Los Angeles Angels v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75 | Portfolio | $9.54 | 1.75 | $7.15 | +3% | +7.15 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Los Angeles Angels v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 58% | 4.13 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 42% | 20.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.70 | 1.04 | -39.2% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.93 | 14.40 | +645.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1423.09 | 1550.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.99 | 1.41 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.70 |