← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.68, WHIP 1.2)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Portfolio | $16.81 | 1.77 | $12.94 | +6% | +12.94 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +4% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 59% | 1.79 |
| Houston Astros win | 41% | 2.46 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.40 | 2.18 | -9.1% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.57 | 1.73 | +10.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| New York Yankees | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1556.06 | 1497.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.96 | -7.73 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |