← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ian Seymour (ERA 4.17, WHIP 1.14) · home: Jackson Jobe (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 | Portfolio | $10.97 | 2.18 | $12.94 | +6% | +12.94 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +11% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 46% | 2.18 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.73 | 1.76 | +1.7% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.97 | 2.12 | +7.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1500.97 | 1529.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.41 | -2.54 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |