← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Payton Tolle (ERA 3.08, WHIP 1.08)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Miami Marlins win | 43% | 23.43 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.67 | 1.03 | -38.6% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.93 | 23.43 | +1112.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1495.65 | 1562.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.72 | 4.80 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.50 |