← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Robbie Ray (ERA 3.2, WHIP 1.31)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Portfolio | $25.01 | 2.00 | $25.01 | +11% | -25.01 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 53% | 2.00 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 47% | 3.10 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.86 | 2.28 | +22.5% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.76 | 1.65 | -6.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1538.62 | 1488.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.54 | 0.29 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |