← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jared Jones (ERA 4.78, WHIP 1.2) · home: Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.85, WHIP 0.96)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 68% | 1.46 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 32% | 3.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.73 | 3.08 | +12.6% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.41 | 1.38 | -2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1578.37 | 1491.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.82 | 4.86 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.80 |