← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.8, WHIP 1.36) · home: Eury Pérez (ERA 3.23, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.58 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.58 | $15.80 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 62% | 1.60 |
| Washington Nationals win | 38% | 2.59 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.46 | 2.53 | +2.9% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.57 | 1.55 | -1.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Miami Marlins | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1492.93 | 1464.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.44 | -4.56 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |