← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Alvarez (ERA 3.72, WHIP 1.33)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Texas Rangers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.50 | $15.00 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Texas Rangers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.50 | $15.00 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Washington Nationals win | 43% | 5.25 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.01 | 5.25 | +161.4% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.73 | 1.20 | -30.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1477.08 | 1469.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.91 | -5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.80 |